Weather Impact Probability Forecasting (WIPCast)

Impact Computing has assembled a world class team – supported by University of Washington, ZedX and Marcus Weather – uniquely qualified to develop the Weather Impact Probability Forecast (WIPCast) system proposed herein. Our approach builds on the research and work of both Dr. Tony Eckel and Dr. Adrian Raftery in the domain of probabilistic forecasting and its practical application. Key innovations and features of our WIPCast solution include: • Calculation of Weather Impact Probability (WIP) to convey the total risk of serious degradation to the complete mission from weather • Development and application of Mission Impact Functions (MIFs) that describe the uncertainty in the chance of mission failure from actual occurrence of adverse weather • Objective calculation of ambiguity in the ensemble forecast and translation into a WIP confidence interval to convey confidence in the decision input • Statistical amalgamation of the potential impact from multivariate weather sensitivities, based on a multivariate space-time probability model for the weather elements of interest, conditioned on the calibrated ensemble forecasts • Flexible Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) that maximizes interoperability with existing systems and frameworks • Data source agnostic approach that avoids reliance on the peculiarities or idiosyncrasies of any particular mesoscale ensemble data source