FACETS: Forecasting Activities through Cultural, Epidemiological, and Temporal Semantics

A central challenge for U.S. forces is anticipating how foreign populations may respond to activities or incidents (e.g., military actions, natural disaster, psychological operations campaigns). Unfortunately, natural changes of attitudes and opinions within a particular population complicate our efforts to assess their opinions and possible reactions to different courses of action. To address this difficulty, Aptima proposes to develop FACETS (Forecasting Activities through Cultural, Epidemiological, and Temporal Semantics). FACETS will provide military planners the capability to forecast shifts in opinion over time within a population of interest. These types of tools have traditionally relied on surveys and censuses, which are accurate but costly, time-consuming, and time sensitive. To compensate for these shortcomings, Aptima will apply natural language processing techniques to extract relevant events, topics, and opinions from population-authored data (e.g., internet news, blogs, and social media). These data will then be used to simulate reactions to current events within the agent-based model, thereby extending the useful life of survey-based analyses. FACETS will then incorporate the mathematics of epidemiology to determine how information spreads within the population. Aptima"s approach takes advantage of often under-utilized data sources to more accurately and efficiently determine whether we are winning the battle of"hearts and minds."