Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting

SET Corporation proposes to develop software for HSCB modeling, analysis and forecasting that can provide insight into potential outcomes of policy decisions, operational actions, and rules of engagement. The Forecasting Cultural Analysis and Simulation Tool (4CAST) will enable modeling of individual and group attitudes and behaviors. Analyst bias will be mitigated by: use of cultural primitives, timeline variation, semantic substitutions to Course of Action events, and other techniques. The result will be Monte Carlo simulations that identify critical event-chains that may impact operational plans. 4CAST will enable (1) rapidly access to a rich knowledge base of descriptive information about the society of interest, (2) rapid understanding of the potential influence of cultural factors on actions and effects of interest, (3) modeling and reasoning about the underlying socio-cultural factors that motivate and control the actions of leaders and populations, (4) identification of topics and areas of concern from a socio-cultural viewpoint so that planners can consider these factors when creating military, SSTR, and relief plans, and (5) generation of plausible futures that take into account the sequencing and timing of events –environment-related, socio-cultural, governmental, and military.