Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting

In modern warfare, the ability for commanders to accurately forecast the behavior of a given population is essential for making high-quality decisions that can determine the success or failure of a mission. Anthropological experts can provide help to commanders in assessing certain situations and would-be effects of alternative actions, but such experts may not have enough up-to-date information, and they often bring their own biases. An alternative approach to behavior forecasting is to use computational methods, which have the benefits of being usable by non-experts, can be updated with the latest data in an automated fashion, and are free from personal bias. Aware of these issues, the OSD is seeking solutions for algorithmic behavioral forecasting. EDAptive Computing, Inc. (ECI) team proposes MAMBA, which will result in an innovative and commercially viable prototype system whose architecture and processes will result in more accurate and robust forecasts of human population behaviors. Through innovative algorithms and modeling techniques, embedded into a flexible and intuitive simulation framework, MAMBA will provide a solution to aid commanders in making decisions that involve such populations.