Message Epidemiology Resource for Counter insURgencY (MERCURY)

Knowledge Based Systems Incorporated (KBSI) proposes Message Epidemiology Resource for Counter insURgencY (MERCURY). MERCURY will provide reliable techniques to optimize influence operations campaigns on insurgencies. Influence operations applied to insurgencies are complicated by the fact that active insurgency participants typically represent a small component of the population (less than 1%). MERCURY will provide computer modeling of the spread of messages that will take into account the full heterogeneity of the host population response and contact rate. MERCURY will additionally identify the “super spreaders” of information in the population in order to accelerate the spread of the message. In the super spreader model relatively few individuals are responsible for most of the transmission. MERCURY will be applied to the dissemination of counterinsurgency messages using super spreaders to achieve more effective and efficient use of information in counter-insurgency operations. MERCURY applies techniques of “Viral marketing” in this approach. MERCURY will focus on developing a solid modeling capability for the phenomena and integrating the capability into operations support systems to enhance the effectiveness of military operations.