Risk and Uncertainty Management for Multidisciplinary System Design and Optimization

In this project, a software framework will be developed for managing risk and uncertainty in the design of undersea weapons systems. Uncertainties always exist during the design process because of a lack of knowledge about system inputs and because the simulation models used to make predictions are imperfect representations of reality. If uncertainties can be taken into account and properly managed during the design process, the resulting systems will be safer, more reliable, more robust, and may have higher performance compared to those designed using traditional methods. In this project, Phoenix Integration will work with the Applied Research Laboratory at Pennsylvania State University to develop and demonstrate an uncertainty management software framework and apply it to the design of a realistic undersea weapon design problem. This software framework will provide engineers with the means to create and execute multi-disciplinary system models, define input variable uncertainties, utilize Gaussian Process metamodels to efficiently perform a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, interpret the results, and make informed design decisions. The undersea weapon example problem will serve to validate and demonstrate the technology. Optional tasks are provided to further develop the technology and apply it to existing Navy programs.