Risk and Uncertainty Management for Multidisciplinary System Design and Optimization

The US General Accounting Office (USGAO) has identified that capturing design knowledge in terms of expected performance and cost comprises a critical exit requirement for transitioning from system integration to demonstration [GAO-02-701]. The sponsor states “The objective of the UWD&O program is to develop computational tools and simulation-based methodology to optimize undersea weaponry system designs with respect to cost and performance.” In addition, a recommendation of the USGAO for the Secretary of the Navy is “to develop a confidence level for all ship cost estimates, based on risk and uncertainty analyses” [GAO-05-183]. Based on these recommendations, Michigan Engineering Services LLC (MES) will perform research for creating a capability for Cost based Multi-discipline Design Optimization under Uncertainty (Cost-MDO-U) that will optimize the life cycle cost of a performance driven system while accounting for uncertainty. With the John Warner National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2007, Pub. L. No. 109-364 §§ 820, 853 (2006), Congress is requiring DoD for a systems engineering and cost estimating revitalization of DoD programs. The new Cost-MDO-U capability will be the outcome of the research and will provide the means for meeting the above mentioned requirement imposed by the Congress. Established MES products in MDO under uncertainty, finite element analysis, and the network of statistical metamodels, will comprise the foundation of the proposed innovations, thus maximizing the impact of the sponsor’s funding. The new innovations will be utilized by Northrop Grumman Undersea Systems for performing a cost based design analysis of a typical unmanned underwater vehicle in order to demonstrate the value and applicability of the new product in designing torpedoes and other unmanned underwater vehicles.