Risk and Uncertainty Management for Multidisciplinary System Design and Optimization

Phoenix Integration proposes to develop a preliminary software framework for assessing and managing risk and uncertainty in engineering system design. If uncertainties can be taken into account and properly managed during the design process, the resulting systems will be safer, more reliable, and more robust. In this project, Phoenix Integration will work with the Applied Research Laboratory at Penn State University to demonstrate the technical and commercial feasibility of a new uncertainty management methodology. This methodology utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to assess the uncertainty of the system. A key element in the methodology is the use of metamodels to reduce the computational expense of the Monte Carlo analysis. The preliminary uncertainty management framework will feature an easy to use interface that will allow designers to build and execute subsystem and system simulation models. Using the graphical interface, users will be able to create and validate metamodels for any of the subsystem components. Designers will then be able to assign uncertainties to any of the system or subsystem inputs and perform a Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis of the system. Visualization and post-processing tools will allow designers to understand the results in real time and to interactively make design choices.