An Adversary Prediction Environment (APE) for Complex Dynamic Environments

There is a key need fin this area for anticipatory tools and techniques to assist command staff in Intelligently Preparing the Battlespace by predicting and assessing adversary and neutral courses-of-action in a manner that enable the rapid diffusion of undesirable military or socio-political situations. We propose an Adversary Prediction Environment (APE) that will provide this capability by leveraging soft computing techniques and grid computing resources to provide an environment that allows for rapid exploration and analysis of enemy COAs for a given set of scenarios. The APE will accomplish this by utilizing prediction capabilities present in our DSAP (Dynamic Situation Awareness and Predictive (DSAP) environment to apply operationally focused simulation through Joint SemiAutomated Forces (JSAF) to evaluate plan effectiveness. The Phase I effort will work to identify prospective scenarios and define a library of basic adversary and neutral force plans, actions, and adversary objectives that can be used to model adversary behavior for the identified scenario. The Phase I will then identify optimization, extrapolation, simulated annealing, and other techniques and heuristics that can be used to “tweak” adversary plans to maximize their effect at achieving both their primary objectives and key 2nd and higher order effects resulting from their actions.