Simulating Emerging Space Industries with Agent-Based Modeling

The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) calls for encouraging commercial participation as a top-level objective. Given current and future commercial activities, how should the government satisfy this objective? How can simulation of future companies determine the most likely to emerge? This innovation seeks to answer such questions envisioning a diverse set of four possible future space companies (orbital habitats/hotels, orbital tourist delivery, propellant depots, lunar excursion tourism, and lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization), examining their business case in spreadsheet-based models (both deterministically and probabilistically), modeling them in a higher fidelity agent-based modeling (ABM) environment (that is new to the aerospace industry but has been used by the authors of the proposal), determining the impact on a company's financial bottom-line, and finding potential cost savings to the government of using those products and services in future space exploration activities. Phase I will entail basic research of each of the four of case studies (or companies) as they are referred to here, spreadsheet-based modeling and analysis of each case study, and preliminary definition of the behaviors required for agent-based modeling. Phase II will entail development of a high fidelity, agent-based model of each company, their competitors, and their customers (commercial and the government).