Active Scenarios Learning of Evolving Situations, Multimodal Counterfactual Reasoning, and Explanations Toward Artificial Intelligence-assisted Wargaming

The current human-centric approach to wargaming and conflict simulations, while valuable, is prone to costly errors, biases, and omissions due to its reliance on manual analysis and subjective interpretations. This limitation becomes increasingly critical in todayís rapidly evolving security landscape where timely, unbiased assessments are crucial for effective decision-making. The specific technical problem addressed by this proposal is the lack of an adaptive, multimodal AI-based scenario learning technology that can continually monitor, assess, and exploit diverse datasets to detect hostile activities, understand operational changes over time, and provide impartial warnings while mitigating human cognitive biases through counterfactual reasoning. Ý A solution to this problem is vital for enhancing situational awareness, improving the accuracy of risk assessments, and facilitating more informed decision-making in wargaming and conflict simulations, ultimately contributing to national security interests.Ý