Deriving Satellite Maneuver Intent from Orbital Data

The evolving landscape of space operations necessitates a transition from traditional Space Situational Awareness (SSA) to comprehensive Space Domain Awareness (SDA) to counter rising adversarial threats. Recognizing the importance of discerning the intent behind satellite maneuvers, Astra Ultra, in partnership with the University of Colorado Colorado Springs (UCCS), proposes the “Custos Intent”. This project aims to transition advanced game theory research into operational tools to enhance SDA by determining the intent of adversarial satellite maneuvers from orbital data. Current methodologies for determining satellite maneuver intent are inefficient and lack automation, with key issues including the challenge of distinguishing between benign and hostile maneuvers, the need for continuous monitoring of adversarial responses to our maneuvers, and the reliance on manual, subjective analysis. To address these problems, Astra Ultra and UCCS propose developing game theory algorithms that autonomously simulate strategic scenarios to assess probably maneuver intents. These algorithms, developed under an Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) grant, will be tested and evaluated for feasibility and effectiveness.