Model-Based Renewable Resource Risk Assessment Analysis and Simulation

Competing cost, load growth, reliability, security and environmental issues are pushing power system design, operation and control to new levels of complexity. What is needed is a multidiscipline, multi-fidelity integrated analysis and information management approach that can be used to combine new technology together with legacy systems in a reliable and cost effective way. Risk assessment and simulation for renewable generation development is a good example of this type of problem. This problem will be addressed through development of a new model-based real-time renewable generation operations risk assessment analysis and mitigation system that will include live data links to Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and web based state-of-the-art Photo Voltaic performance data services. The prototype system will be tested using existing integrated transmission and distribution models for a real power utility system. The system includes a significant level of Photo Voltaic (PV) sites and will be modeled to a level of detail that includes one-to-one correspondence with real system components, and all customer connections with 13 months of historical hourly load data. In addition to providing new risk monitoring and analysis capability, the system will be used to develop and test new PV performance and customer load forecasting, which is a significant source of renewable resource use uncertainty. Successful concept development and testing of Graph Trace Analysis Approach (GTA) based operations risk monitoring, mitigation and visualization using a test model and data. Develop and implement a prototype model-based operations management risk analysis, mitigation and visualization system that can be used either by itself or as part of an integrated smart grid solution. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits: The Graph Trace Analysis software to be used for the project is uniquely suited for development of a new renewable resource risk assessment approach that can be implemented as part of an integrated design, operation and control analysis and information management solution. GTA is currently being used by leading industry, academic and government research organizations to address complex system analysis and information management problems that previously could not be solved. The web based services that will be integrated with the new system is a leader in renewable resource monitoring and analysis. Combining capabilities from these to next generation type capabilities, and then refining them using real system data will significantly increase problem size, level of detail and complexity of renewable resource related analysis that can be performed for both design and real-time operations.