Multiple Hypothesis Management

Modern analysts are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of intelligence data available, making it time-consuming and tedious to parse, verify, and coordinate disparate sources of intelligence data. This is particularly critical in national security, where trustability and usability of data are paramount. The flood of actionable data leads to hesitation when considering courses of action (COAs), as the vast trade spaces often leave users with more options than are feasibly actionable on tactically relevant timelines. To address this, an intelligent and intuitive pruning of these COAs is required to ensure that decision-makers can access all possible actions within the trade space and have confidence in the decisions derived from the analysis of alternatives. With our research institution partner UDRI, the Sedaro team will design and assess the feasibility of an open-architecture framework for multi-hypothesis analysis and planning. This framework will support analysts, decision-makers, and planners by generating sets of feasible world-states based on any set of observed data and user needs, leveraging Sedaro’s digital twin and simulation capabilities to refine their viability. The goal is to allow users to focus on defining mission needs and exploring possibilities, freeing them from managing numerous data sources, tools, and procedures. The proposed MHM Open Architecture will define all necessary modeling standards, including frameworks, formats, and ontologies, to enable modular, competitive, and agile development of MHM software. By ensuring interoperability between data sources and mission processes through ontologies, this framework will provide automated sense-making and decision support, preventing analysts from "drowning in data but starving for information." This approach will enhance tactical analysis by applying equally to red and blue forces, supporting multi-step game processes, and delivering sets of truly viable hypotheses enriched by high-fidelity simulations and digital twin information.