Feasibility Study of Predictive Sporadic E Occurance/Severity From Global Ionosonde Data

The proposed research aims to determine the feasibility of predicting Sporadic E (Es) occurrences using historical and real-time global ionosonde data. Es layers, which sporadically appear in the upper atmosphere, play a significant role in the long-distance propagation of radio waves, affecting radio frequency (RF) systems. The anticipated model would offer predictions on Es occurrences, aiding in optimizing the functionality of communication, navigation, intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance systems. With an upsurge in the availability of real-time ionosonde and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, there is potential for an enhanced predictive capability for Es. Past research has established associations between Es critical frequency (foEs) and atmospheric waves in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). These associations offer an avenue for the development of predictive models, combining physics-based understanding with real-time data analysis. The proposed research offers a promising outlook in predicting sporadic E occurrences from global ionosonde data. Through a systematic approach of data collection, occurrence and severity study, and detailed correlation analysis, the study aims to harness the power of real-time and historical ionosonde data. This, when realized, can significantly impact radio frequency (RF) systems, enhancing their efficiency and functionality.