Cognitive Arbitrage

According to Army Doctrine Publication 3-13, information advantage (IA) is ōa condition when a force holds the initiative in terms of situational understanding, decision making, and relevant actor behavior.ö Some of the ArmyÆs immediate and long term IA problems include: visualizing, measuring intent, and assessing change in the information environment (IE). Our Phase I Global Conflict-Cooperation Change Detection & Alerting prototype addresses all three of these IA problems. Our technology estimates the cognitive states of regional and local leaders based on global news reporting. It is an IA enabling capability--especially during the competition continuum phase of operations. Cognitive arbitrage is a process for identifying and capitalizing on opportunistic moments within systems based upon changes in human cognitive states. Fundamentally, the variety of system activities and human overwhelm are related; our tech operationalizes complexity, cybernetics, and information theory. Our tech will have an instant and lasting positive impact for soldiers and commanders. It improves key leader engagement timing, improves deployment readiness for the entire Information Operations and Psychological Operations communities, and establishes a long term generational understanding of influence. This Phase II project will mature our tech according to feedback and deliver a Global Conflict-Cooperation Change Detection and Prediction Service. The ability to analyze, measure change, and forecast in the IE is essential to achieving IA. A truer risk assessment of the IE illuminates threats and opportunities, particularly for operational planning.