Program Lifecycle Modeling System

Leaders of acquisition and modernization programs are under pressure to deliver new capabilities to the field faster. Yet, sustainment costs are an overwhelming portion of total costs and decisions made in early stages of development and acquisition have outsized impacts on these. Program leaders are left to balance these pressures and need better tools that give them the ability to make timely decisions with rapid, rigorous lifecycle analysis from development through sustainment. Our proposed tool bridges this gap and addresses key complexities. We are able to link a proven program development/acquisition simulation modeling system with a proven sustainment modeling framework to create a rigorous, whole lifecycle analysis tool for program teams. Current tools are limited due to the complexity of lifecycle analysis and the very different data information needed early vs later program stages. As a result, government programs typically do limited, siloed analysis of sustainment in the early stages of development, when critical decisions are made that impact long-term sustainment. Program managers are thus flying blind and end up needing to rely heavily on prime contractors which allows primes to shape programs to favor the contractor and perpetuate ævendor lockÆ. Linking two strong tools in a single modeling system gives program managers help. For development, Sage Analysis Group has developed and refined a Program Management Modeling System (ōPMMS) for large ($1B+) commercial and government / defense programs that has been successfully used and proven over decades. PMMS is useful to program leaders but focuses on design through production, not sustainment. Sage has recently helped DoD program leaders on sustainment issues on individual programs, creating customized PMMS add-ons. There are technical challenges aligning model details and complexity needed for design through build with the different details (e.g., individual parts on individual units) important for sustainment, so the tools have not been linked. Through our learning to date on several programs and our experimentation, Sage proposes to create generalizable sustainment modules to broaden PMMS into a Program Lifecycle Modeling System (ōPLMSö). PLMS would help Air Force and Space Force program leaders and is also relevant for other DoD and SageÆs commercial PMMS customers (transit systems, infrastructure, energy complexes, etc.). Sage proposes to feasibility-test and define this extension to PMMS using new simulation tools capable of handling this complexity and using input from USAF contacts and work over the past 2 years as we have continued to develop our technology. This work builds on a proven strategic acquisition modeling tool that has been used to support critical decisions on over 100 large defense and commercial programs, winning awards such as Hamilton award from American Society of Naval Engineers.