GLOBAL FORECASTING OF EARTH’S ELECTRON RADIATION BELTS WITH DATA ASSIMILATION

Accurately nowcasting and forecasting the near-Earth space radiation environment is critical to mitigate risk to our space-based assets and NASA’s near-Earth space missions. Precise forecasting requires detailed knowledge of the current state of the radiation belts, a robust physics-based forward propagation model, accurate forecasting of model input parameters and model driving parameters, as well as exhaustive confidence tracking to evaluate the uncertainties. There are no US-based capabilities that currently provide global nowcasts and forecasts of energetic particle conditions encountered by spacecraft within Earth’s magnetosphere. Space Science Innovations (SSI) has an existing data assimilative physics-based model, and is capable of transitioning to real-time nowcasting and forecasting that meet all of the above requirements. Specifically, this work will improve upon an existing electron radiation belt model to provide accurate predictions and nowcasts of the global outer radiation belt electron space environment, aid in spacecraft anomaly resolution, and assist spacecraft operators. The proposed work leverages a well-validated physics-based data assimilative code, the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt 3D code (VERB-3D). After more than 15 years developing the code, the group at SSI has developed a framework for historical reconstruction that has high-performance metrics. The proposed work will develop a proof-of-concept nowcast and forecast product that will provide actionable predictions for space weather situation awareness of the global electron environment in near-Earth space. These capabilities will allow for real-time prediction of spacecraft environmental risks that can be offered to stakeholders as actionable data products. Target markets include NASA/CCMC for R2O2R advancement and as well as the private sector for mission operations.