Commercial data assimilation tool for operational thermospheric density

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is becoming more congested as the number of satellites continues to grow with the rising popularity and establishment of SmallSat constellations. Accordingly, there is strong interest by U.S. agencies, companies, and international organizations to manage LEO collision hazards. Improved thermospheric density nowcasts and forecasts are a critical need identified by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Working Group, a Federal interagency coordinating body. To fill this need, the work proposed here will provide a commercial data assimilation (DA) tool that combines various data sources to provide a corrected global density state. The nowcast corrected global density state can then be combined with Space Environment Technologies’ (SET) operational forecast space weather indices to produce a forecast global density state 2- to 3-days in the future. With a team of investigators that have deep experience with the development of HASDM, this Phase II work will fully construct Solari, a commercial DA tool that assimilates radar tracking data and Space Force Energy Dissipation Rates (EDRs) of calibration satellites to correct multiple background density models simultaneously and produce a global density state. The end goal is an operational commercial density nowcast and forecast data stream, with corresponding uncertainties, that offers accuracy comparable to that of HASDM. The commercial DA tool will have a flexible architecture that allows for expansion of additional measurement data sources, such as satellite GPS data, in the future. We consider four cases of growth for our commercial data assimilation tool to improve thermosphere density forecasts: civilian agency satellites, defense applications, commercial satellites, and space traffic management.