Producing a Benchmark HASDM Forecast Density Database

In this proposal, we address the looming international challenge of harmonizing the use of accurate, validated, and agreed upon thermospheric density models for improved current and predicted satellite drag estimates. Specifically, to facilitate improvements in forecasting methods, we propose to firstly build, and make publicly available, a High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) forecast density database spanning a solar cycle from 2013 to 2027. This database can become a forecasting benchmark of current U.S. operational capabilities and, from the experience of the nowcast density database we have already released, it can facilitate community-wide density forecasting research and development. This database is the first step of the proposed work toward improved density forecasting methods for the benefit of LEO operations. In addition to generating the HASDM forecast density database, we will also extend the existing Space Environment Technologies (SET) HASDM nowcast density database [Tobiska et al., 2021], currently covering 2000 to 2019, into the year 2025. The existing database is publicly available at https://spacewx.com/hasdm/ and has become widely used in the international thermospheric density modeling community as the de facto global density baseline. This work is a direct R2O2R application; we will transition current operational space weather forecasting capabilities to a research setting for evaluation of performance and data sharing. The expanded knowledge will then be transitioned back to operations to improve future capabilities via development of a Machine-Learned (ML) HASDM model.