Multi-Faceted Space Object Conjunction Assessment

ABSTRACT: There is a critical need to provide new methodologies that more reliably determine what satellite orbital events are most critical to monitor and how such methods can be made scalable to a growing catalog of up to 500,000 objects. To support these endeavors, in Phase I, Numerica developed and tested two software tools for space object conjunction assessment (CA) to support the future needs of the space situational awareness (SSA) mission, namely the Sensor Level Assessor of Track Errors (SLATE) and the Kollision Risk Assessment Tool in Orbital Element Spaces (KRATOS). SLATE provides higher quality sensor tracks with more realistic states and covariances in order to improve reliability of downstream SSA functions such as CA. KRATOS provides an innovative approach to computing the probability of collision (PC) between space objects that rivals the accuracy of Monte-Carlo methods but with little added computational cost relative to the traditional linearization (Foster) method. In Phase II, Numerica will mature the SLATE and KRATOS software, transition them to the ARCADE environment, and demonstrate an end-to-end solution to the multi-faceted CA problem beginning with the ingestion of sensor data and ending with the key CA metrics displayed in a risk assessment visualization tool.; BENEFIT: SLATE sends more reliable input to downstream CA algorithms by generating improved orbital estimates and more realistic covariances directly from sensor observations. KRATOS helps to better inform courses of action by reducing collision false alarms and misdetections by virtue of computing a more reliable probability of collision. Together, SLATE and KRATOS provide plugs-in for an end-to-end capability for space object CA that provide the analyst with advanced tools needed to support CA screening on a growing space catalog and ultimately to serve the future needs of the SSA mission. The primary transition path of SLATE will be to ARCADE for use as a pre-processor to the Continuous Orbital Situation Determination (CAOS-D) system (and other ARCADE services) that require realistic VCMs from sensor data as input. The primary transition path of KRATOS will be to ARCADE as a plug-in for CAOS-D. Such transitions serve as natural gateways for transition of the software to a future service pack of the JSpOC Mission System (JMS). A secondary transition path that will be pursued in Phase II is to AFSPC for inclusion of the software into the Astrodynamics Standards Library.