Maneuver Prediction and Avoidance Logic For Unmanned Aircraft System Encounters with Non-Cooperative Air Traffic

For Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to operate seamlessly in both the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) and abroad, it will be crucial that they possess a sense-and-avoid (SAA) capability that can ensure safe operations among maneuvering, non-cooperative aircraft. Numerica Corporation, in partnership with Johns Hopkins University, proposes to develop a set of algorithms to model the uncertainties associated with maneuvering aircraft, update these representations in real-time using encounter-specific information, and then use them to estimate conflict risk and plan avoidance maneuvers. An important feature of the proposed approach is the development of an avoidance-based measure of conflict risk that is based on the coupling between possible maneuvers of an uncertain intruder and resulting avoidance responses of theownship. This would extend the typical"blunder scenario"measure of risk for the purpose of: (i) reducing the occurrence of unnecessary maneuvers triggered by the SAA system, (ii) understanding the relationship between advanced sensor capabilities and improved safety, and (iii) informing hardware requirements for an SAA system operating in Visual Flight Rules (VFR) type environments.