Commercial data assimilation tool for operational thermospheric density

The Low Earth Orbit (LEO) regime is becoming more congested as the number of satellites continues to grow with the rising popularity and establishment of SmallSat constellations. Accordingly, there is strong interest by U.S. agencies, companies, and international organizations to manage LEO collision hazards. Improved thermospheric density nowcasts and forecasts are a critical need identified by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Working Group, a Federal interagency coordinating body [National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan, 2019]. The purpose of the proposed work is to provide a commercial data assimilation (DA) tool that combines various data sources to provide a corrected global density state. The nowcast corrected global density state can then be combined with Space Environment Technologies’ (SET) operational forecast space weather indices to produce a forecast global density state 2- to 3-days in the future. Because the state-of-the-art in density estimation, the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM), is not available for use outside of the US Government, there is a need for a commercial DA tool that can provide operational nowcast and forecast densities to satellite operators for day-to-day operations. With a team of investigators that have experience with the development of HASDM, the intended use of funding is to construct a commercial DA tool that assimilates radar tracking data and Energy Dissipation Rates (EDRs) of calibration satellites to correct a background density model and produce a global density state. The end goal is an operational commercial density data stream that offers accuracy equal to or surpassing that of HASDM. We consider four cases of growth for our commercial data assimilation tool to improve thermosphere density forecasts: civilian agency satellites, defense applications, commercial satellites, and space traffic management.