Improved Forecasting of Operational Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

This ldquo;Improved Forecasting of Operational Solar and Geomagnetic Indicesrdquo; (SGI) work will significantly improve existing operational thermospheric density forecasts that are applicable to low Earth orbit (LEO) space traffic management. This work will build upon results from new SGI forecast algorithms for the solar S10 and geomagnetic Dst indices that match or outperform existing forecasting methods. Those improvements, when added to operations, will expand redundancy, bolster resiliency, and enhance accuracy in the resulting thermosphere densities in LEO. This work will test those improvements in an operationally relevant environment as they are transitioned from technology readiness level (TRL) 6 to TRL 8. The redundant S10 index will use the National Solar Observatory (NSO) ADAPT algorithm to obtain this solar irradiance index forecast out to 7 days using solar source surface magnetic information, adding physical information to the forecast beyond what is currently done with simple linear predictive techniques. The improved Dst forecast applies machine learning (ML) for the 6-day and 2-day forecasts by using ACE or DSCVR solar wind information and by using solar images. This University of Colorado set of algorithms substantially improves the 6-hour forecast and will replace the existing Anemomilos Dst output now provided plus offer uncertainty assessment. The probabilistic 2-day forecast will inform issue/no issue decisions for the Anemomilos Dst, which is used operationally. Direct users of the advances include NASA Conjunction Analysis Risk Assessment (CARA), USSF 18thnbsp;SDS, Department of Commerce (DoC) Office of Space Commerce (OSC), and commercial LEO satellite operators. This forecast of Dst will also be made available for community assessment through the NASA CCMC CME Scoreboard with an automated upload capability to be developed.