Concurrent Kriging for Modeling and Simulation Analysis

Through previous Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) projects and subsequent work, OptTek has created software called OptDef that integrates with constructive Department of Defense (DoD) simulation tools and provides simulation optimization and analytics. It has been integrated with over a dozen different simulation tools, and its open architecture allows straightforward integration with additional simulations. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is developing a high-fidelity digital simulation capability to support the SoS M&S Enterprise This Phase II SBIR project will explore different custom applications of the OptDef simulation optimization and analysis framework to enable MDS analysts to achieve the best analysis results possible from the coming digital simulation environment while executing the fewest simulation runs. To put it another way, with a limited number of simulation runs available, how can we choose the best sets of simulation runs to execute to get very good results. The primary use case we propose to explore in this project comes from a desire to generate collections of related heat maps to show effectiveness measures of different MDS system configurations in defense of US interests against various threats and threat employment options. In an earlier effort, OptTek created and delivered software to obtain the desired results for a single heat map with vastly fewer simulation runs using a novel Kriging-based approach. In this Phase II project, OptTek will perform research and development to extend and enhance this initial work to obtain the desired results for a collection of related heat maps, and by considering and building them concurrently, will further reduce the number of simulation runs required to achieve the desired analysis results. Approved for Public Release | 22-MDA-11339 (13 Dec 22)