Operational Defense Effectiveness Assessments for Missile Raid Scenarios

OptTek will apply our novel mapping, adaptive sampling, and optimization capabilities to better understand the operational effectiveness under multi-threat missile raids. While digital simulations provide faster feedback on system performance than a ground test, the computational costs are still too high to handle the combinatorial explosion of parameter combinations and resultant simulations that are needed to study a raid. Our work will create meaningful and intuitive metrics that accurately describe the operational effectiveness against multi-threat raids; develop notional multi-threat raid scenarios to demonstrate the validity of those metrics; and enhance our geospatial heatmap capabilities to create and display those metrics in a meaningful and accurate manner to support the analyst with a minimal number of simulation runs. We will leverage our novel data fusion techniques to combine results from medium-fidelity digital simulations to help guide the analyst to make efficient use of high-fidelity simulations. By sampling the study space efficiently, reporting meaningful metrics to the analyst, and accurately mapping the results of the simulations, we will extract more useful information from fewer simulation runs than a manual analysis of the space would allow. Approved for Public Release | 21-MDA-11013 (19 Nov 21)