DELPHI: Decision-aid using Event Likelihood Probabilities for Hypothesis-based Intelligence

As space emerges as a contested domain, potential hostile actions as well as denial and deception (D&D) operations compound the inherent difficulty of maintaining awareness in this data-starved environment. To maintain space situational awareness (SSA) with limited sensing resources and to help space operators assess situations and the outcomes of potential actions, Numerica has developed the Decision-aid using Event Likelihood Probabilities for Hypothesis-based Intelligence (DELPHI) software. DELPHI provides hypothesis-based intelligence and sensor orchestration to aid analysts and decision makers in operational environments and to facilitate SSA/BMC2 missions in resource-stressed scenarios. DELPHI leverages multi-INT data and multi-source sensors to drive intelligent data collection and to probe both the "most likely" events (e.g., routine maneuvers) as well as and the "most dangerous" events (e.g., threatening maneuvers). In Phase I, Numerica demonstrated DELPHI's utility with real and simulated data, successfully predicting the maneuver of a recently-launched, foreign satellite in GEO. In Phase II, Numerica will mature DELPHI to consider more complicated scenarios, to perform situation assessment and evaluate potential actions, to ingest more diverse multi-INT data, and to interact with multi-source sensors.