Real Time Simulation Based Predictive Analytics (RTSimPA) for Phase-based Vaccination Tracking and Efficacy Assessment (Pvac)

RTSync proposes Real Time Simulation Based Predictive Analytics (RTSimPA) Phase-based Vaccination Tracking and Efficacy Assessment (PVac) system technology. This technical innovation is a generic digital model of Phase-based Vaccination Tracking and Efficacy Assessment (PVac) Pathways to enable implementation of effective toolsets to track, monitor, and predict the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination distribution systems and the efficacy and durability of vaccines. Moreover, the same Modeling and Simulation (M&S) framework, once verified, will be applicable to interventions in other applicable use cases for prevalent diseases such as HIV/AIDS, diabetes, childhood obesity, military infectious diseases, psychological health/traumatic brain Injury, and combat related rehabilitation. The resulting model will establish a firm mathematical system-theoretic foundation for model-based systems engineering design and implementation of public health-threatening disease management strategies. RTSimPA will be based on the existing RTSync-owned Modeling and Simulation environment (MS4 Me) based on Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS).  Due to its universality of realization, any real world system, or system of systems (SoS) can be modeled in DEVS and simulated in a compliant computational platform. An optimal health and social service delivery system requires methods to model large scale distributed complex systems, a challenge that has been identified under the rubric of Model-based Systems Engineering in that the optimization cannot be based on sub-optimization of the component systems, but must be directed at the entire system itself. People with multiple health and social needs are high consumers of health care services, and are thus drivers of high health care costs. RTSync extended the framework to include the level of population management that employs risk management and pathways of care to provide coordination at the system of systems level. A generic process was defined in which a patient is inducted into coordinated care with a full-scale screening and assessment of medical, social and behavioral health risks and assignment to one of a small set of categories of risk, each with its own distinct portfolio of interventions and care coordination services. A primary distinction with current practice is that a patient is assigned to single Primary Care Provider (PCP, doctor) and connected care coordination team who are responsible for all subsequent patient interactions with the system.. The PCP team is continually updated with results of the patient’s encounters with such interventions and mitigations of risk through system-provided tracking thus enabling monitoring of progress in addressing modifiable risk.   Using RTSimPA, stakeholders and decision-makers involved in epidemic management can get help in areas of information messaging, training, connectivity, and real time monitoring.