Modeling of Dense Urban Networks (MDUN)

This proposal is to extend into Phase II our development of a new system for Modeling of Dense Urban Networks (MDUN). We are joined in this effort by Dr. Rick Grannis of the UCI Sociology Department, a recognized expert in computational social science. Our objective is to develop MDUN as a tool which will assist decision makers in choosing courses of action that optimally further their goals while minimizing adverse consequences, whether they are involved in combat, counter-insurgency, security enforcement, peacekeeping, or humanitarian assistance missions. Specifically, MDUN will do this by: (1) Allowing decision makers to reliably assess an urban environment’s resilience in a multi-faceted way; (2) Allowing decision makers to accurately identify potential triggers or tipping points leading to rapid shifts in urban resilience or population sentiment; (3) Allowing decision makers to forecast the impact, both direct and indirect, which various courses of action as well as potential future shocks and / or stressors might have on urban resilience as well as the sentiment and behaviors of the local populace; (4) Conveying this intelligence to users meaningfully through an insight-generating interface; and (5) Utilizing optimal data resources, both live and archival, so as to deliver the most accurate, timely intelligence.  Our proposed Phase II effort will build on the significant technical achievements that we demonstrated successfully in Phase I, contributions which secured the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) as our active partner in further development and transition.