KBSI Civil Affairs Social Media Monitor for DUE Resilience (K-CASM)

Dense Urban Environments (DUE) are characterized by large concentrated populations that tend to cluster into groups networked together by common interests and needs. Populations cluster along political, social, cultural, ethnic, economic and other social lines. Networks among these groups, formed along lines of shared characteristics, are often in friction with one another as they contend over scarce structural or functional resources (water, food, housing, information, legitimacy, etc.). Stresses along one dimension (social or structural) can propagate to other dimensions, leading to unintended or unanticipated 2nd and 3rd order effects. Accurately forecasting the response to stressors, including 2nd and 3rd order effects, is extremely difficult. Effective forecasts can enable analysts and planners to assess social and structural resilience within a DUE. The “KBSI Civil Affairs Social Media Monitor for DUE Resilience” (K-CASM) will extend the current state of the art DUE resilience models by developing mathematical models of how human make decisions and its effects on the multiple interconnected networks of a DUE. The output will be forecasts of sentiment and community behavior.