Realistic State and Measurement Error Uncertainty Computation and Propagation for Space Surveillance and Reconnaissance

ABSTRACT: The correct representation of a resident space object's state uncertainty and the accurate propagation of the uncertainty by way of the Fokker-Planck equation, collectively referred to as uncertainty consistency, is fundamental to space situational awareness and the problems of data/track association (correlation), sensor resource management, conjunction analysis, and anomaly detection. The proposed Phase II program will build on the Phase I results by maturing the Gaussian sum filter and state transition tensor filter, providing a proper treatment of uncertainty on manifolds, developing online sensor health and bias estimation algorithms, and demonstrating the impact of these new uncertainty management algorithms in the context of tracking (i.e., association, fusion) within a multiple hypothesis tracker. The program will unify these topics under a single framework within a software environment that supports rapid algorithm prototyping, testing and evaluation, and high performance computing. Using an object-oriented design, the software will be modular and capable of being integrated into existing (tracking) systems. BENEFIT: The first anticipated benefit from the proposed program will be the development of modern and statistically robust modern nonlinear estimation and uncertainty management techniques designed to support space surveillance (correlation problem in tracking space objects), sensor resource management, conjunction analysis, and anomaly detection. The key commercialization of the proposed program would be a transition of the algorithms and software, either alone or embedded in a modern multiple target tracking system, to the JSpOC Mission Systems, NRO/NSA, or to a prime for the Space Fence such as Lockheed Martin or Raytheon. This program also provides the opportunity to work with other contractors and the nation's Air Force labs in support of the nation's space protection and situational assessment programs utilizing Numerica's strengths in all phases of multiple target tracking, modern control systems, sensors, sensor resource management, and situation assessment.