Realistic State and Measurement Error Uncertainty Computation and Propagation for Space Surveillance and Reconnaissance

Space surveillance is the component of space situational awareness focused on the detection of resident space objects (RSOs) and the use of multisource data to track and identify space objects. While the propagation of the states of RSOs has been investigated extensively over the last fifty years, the correct propagation of their covariance or the more general (non-Gaussian) probability distribution function has not. Thus, the significance of the opportunity is to develop a robust and consistent assessment of uncertainty throughout the space surveillance network to support correlation, collision avoidance, reacquisition, sensor cueing and tasking, and maneuver/change detection. This proposal aims to balance computational complexity with state-or-the-art algorithms which improve consistency in the estimation of state uncertainties. The ingredients include the choice of coordinate systems, numerical integrators, and advanced nonlinear filtering and initial orbital determination, as well as the treatment of residual biases and the employment of feature and non-traditional data. The adaptation of existing metrics and the development of new ones will be required to evaluate the consistency of uncertainty, especially for online use. BENEFIT: The anticipated benefit from the proposed program will be improved and robust data/track association processing, collision avoidance including probability of collision, probability of reacquisition, sensor cueing and tasking, and maneuver/change detection. The key commercialization of the proposed program would be a transition of the algorithms and software, either alone or embedded in a modern multiple target tracking system, to the JSpOC Mission Systems. This program also provides the opportunity to work with other contractors and the nation''s Air Force labs in support of the nation''s space protection and situational assessment programs utilizing Numerica''s strengths in all phases of multiple target tracking, sensors, sensor resource management, and situation assessment.