Operational Real-time and Forecast USGS Dst

The USAF requires accurate specification and forecast of thermospheric densities for LEO satellite orbit calculations. The JB2008 thermospheric density model provides the high accuracy densities, partly made possible by using the Dst index. Dst characterizes the energy input during geomagnetic storms and substorms. Because of JB2008''s advantages the USAF plans to operationally implement this model. Unfortunately, Dst is not provided with the operational robustness required for Air Force operations. In addition, Dst is produced outside the U.S. at the World Data Center Kyoto University facility. The USGS has recently developed an excellent comparative Dst index based on the same network of magnetic observatories as the ones used by the Kyoto Dst. This Phase II project will provide a real-time, fully redundant Dst production system demonstrated with 1-minute time granularity at the current epoch, with latencies of no more than 5 minutes, and with cadences of no more than 5 minutes. The system also has the goal of providing an accurate Dst forecast with time granularity of 1-minute up to 1 hour and 1-hour to 72-hours. The project team will develop, implement, and demonstrate this system at TRL 8 for the AFRL customer and the AFSPC JB2008 end user. BENEFIT: The Phase II project will provide a real-time fully redundant Dst production system demonstrated with 1-minute time granularity at the current epoch, with latencies of no more than 5 minutes, and with cadences of no more than 5 minutes. The system also has the goal of providing an accurate Dst forecast with time granularity of 1-minute up to 1 hour and 1-hour to 72-hours. The project team will develop, implement, and demonstrate this system for the AFRL customer and the AFSPC JB2008 end user. The system and data provision that we accomplish during Phase II and the TRL 8 demonstration will allow transfer of technology to other Air Force and military entities and to the commercial market. For example, the system would have significant application for improving high latitude accuracies in radar, radio communications, and navigation systems as a result of use by the GAIM system that has been implemented at AFWA. At the conclusion of Phase II the project will immediately roll over into Phase III activity, including the operational provision of the real-time and forecast Dst indices to AFSPC for use by JB2008. In Phase III, SET plans to market the real-time and forecast Dst to radio communications and navigation systems users through inclusion in the Utah State University (USU) GAIM system that is being commercialized under the USU USTAR initiative. The Phase II development and implementation is crucial to achievement of such commercialization goals.