An Operational Ionospheric Forecast System

This project will provide a prototype operational ionospheric forecast system based on the GAIM data assimilation ionospheric model and driven by the best operational models currently available. This system is the type envisioned by the National SpaceWeather Program. Its development represents a major advance in space weather operational systems for ionospheric forecasting. The system architecture combines physics-based and empirical models specifying the 4-D global conditions to provideglobal-to-local characterizations, at all latitudes, longitudes, and altitudes, with recent history, current epoch, and forecast out to 72 hours, of ionospheric and neutral density profiles, total electron content, plasma drifts, neutral winds, andtemperatures. The prototype will be demonstrated at 10-minutely cadences for communications, GPS navigation, radar surveillance, and geolocation users. The system architecture is designed for operational reliability and robustness with quantifiableuncertainties. There are two modes of operation: a modified turn-key system with a central server at one geographical location and a distributed network system consisting of a database server that exchanges files between models running asynchronously onseparate servers. Testing of the Phase II prototype will document ionospheric parameters' accuracy, precision, and error with established metrics, comparative data, and exercised under operational conditions with quality control. The team behind thisproposal intends to commercialize this operational ionospheric forecast system. A plan for commercialization includes industry and market analysis, competitor analysis, product analysis, customer modification planning, partnership agreements, andsystem/product deliveries. The system will be a foundation for servicing ground, aeronautical, and space systems via coupled models. Capabilities that will be improved through use of this operational ionospheric forecast system include aircraft deploymentand logistics. The system can substantially strengthen force projection at any given time with rapid ingress to any global location, e.g., a navigation and HF communication capability made possible by significantly improved ionospheric specification. Itwill enable new classes of missions, particularly those that require either shorter travel times from the continental U.S. to other hemisphere locations or higher accuracy single frequency GPS location knowledge. It will provide the technical knowledge todeny situational awareness to parties who may be using GPS single frequency devices. This proposed system will permit expanded UAV flight regimes capabilities in polar, mid-, and low-latitudes. It will also provide a platform for seamless integration ofSBIRS Low TEC occultation data as well as C/NOFS ionospheric irregularities and scintillation data.