M&S Uncertainty Quantification

OptTek Systems, Inc (OptTek), proposes an affordable, effective UQ capability for both legacy and new BMDS M & S. The OptTek Team includes research institution partner Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and subcontractor RTSync Corporation (RTSync). The proposed BMDS M & S UQ capability maximizes insertability into existing and future MDA BMDS M & S-supported Event processes, analysis methods, architectures, simulations and frameworks. The OptTek Team will deliver systems engineering artifacts for an objective end-state BMDS M & S UQ Reference Architecture configured on RTSync"s proven Discrete Event Systems Specification (DEVS) for straightforward insertion into existing and new BMDS M & S tools. The BMDS M & S UQ capability builds on the ORNL"s methods and experience with Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to provide an objective measure of confidence in M & S-based results. The OptTek Team proposes innovative epistemic UQ by leveraging the Government"s prior investment in the OptDef BMDS Simulation Optimization. In the Phase I Option, the OptTek Team proposes a prototype demonstration of joint epistemic and aleatoric UQ and QMU using existing MDA BMDS M & S tools, OptDef with the Monte Carlo simulation capability in the Extended Air Defense Simulation (EADSIM). OptTek"s 20-year track record commercializing advanced algorithms and SBIR products maximizes the likelihood of commercialization success.